According to YouGov’s 2019 General Election poll, no parliamentary seats in Leeds city will change. The Labour candidates in Leeds Central, Leeds East, Leeds West, Leeds North East and Leeds North West are all expected to be re-elected on Thursday 12th December.
YouGov’s poll predictions are based on more than 100,000 interviews which are held with registered voters. In 2017, 93% of their predicted seats were correct.
The results of the YouGov 2019 General Election MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model indicate that the Conservatives are expected to receive 43% of the total vote share, thus leading to a majority of 68. This is an expected gain of 47 seats; 44 of which will be from Labour.
According to the model, the ‘red wall’ of seats located in the Midlands and north England are expected to crumble, with Tory gains across many traditional Labour heartlands. The YouGov poll also predicts that the Conservatives will hold onto Pudsey and Calder Valley, which are two of their most marginal seats.
Labour is expected to receive 32% of the vote share, resulting in a net loss of 51 seats. This would make it the party’s worst performance since 1983.
Journalist Stephen Bush warned in his column in The New Statesman, that the YouGov MRP poll should be “taken with a pinch of salt”.
Boris Johnson’s top strategist, Dominic Cummings, has rejected YouGov’s findings and has said that there is a “very real possibility” of a hung parliament despite the Conservative party maintaining a significant lead over Labour in the polls.
Mr Cummings has said that voting for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in Conservative target seats in the Midlands and the North of England risked handing victory to Labour. He stated “If Boris doesn’t get a majority, then Corbyn and Sturgeon will control the government,” despite Corbyn’s clear rejection of a Lab-SNP deal.
The polls suggest that the Liberal Democrats will win 13 seats (an increase of one seat), the Scottish National Party will win 43, Plaid Cymru will win four and the Green Party will maintain their one parliamentary seat. Despite predictions that the Brexit Party will receive 3% of the vote, they are not expected to win any seats.
Big names that are at risk of being ousted include Dennis Skinner who is the longest continuously serving Labour MP in history, deputy leader Tom Watson and Shadow Scottish Secretary, Lesley Laird.
YouGov’s political research manager, Chris Curtis has said:
“The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called Red Wall. But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.”
Image: DOMINIC LIPINSKI/PA