Game over for Starmer?
Hakeem Kabia discusses the wider implications of the Mandelson scandal for Keir Starmer and UK politics.
Image Credit: Number 10 via Flickr
Sir Keir Starmer is fighting for political survival after his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney and head of communications Tim Allen – two crucial aides of Starmer – resigned. McSweeney has taken full responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US, who is now caught up in the Epstein scandal. While McSweeney may have taken the fall for the Mandelson appointment, pressure intensifies, with Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar now demanding Starmer’s resignation; it’s worth considering whether these departures are genuine damage control or merely a delay of the inevitable.
Even if Starmer succeeds in distancing himself from the Mandelson episode, he still faces a series of looming political tests that could fatally weaken his standing as PM. The most immediate of these is the Gorton and Denton by-election on the 26th of this month, a contest that may very well act as an early gauge of confidence in Labour under Starmer.
Labour enters the by-election defending a 13,000 majority, yet the contest for this seat is set to be much tougher given the rise of Farage’s Reform UK, along with the Greens, who, since Zack Polanski’s leadership, present an increasingly popular left-wing alternative to Labour in the polls. In 2024, around 80% of the constituency voted for a left-wing party, so the prospect of the Greens taking this seat from Labour is far from implausible. Reform’s only realistic path to victory in this seat would depend on a split left-wing vote winning in this seat if the Greens split the left-wing vote. Either outcome would represent a major blow to Starmer’s authority.
In our political culture, local elections are routinely used as a barometer of public opinion towards the governing party – a magnified version of the dynamics seen in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Similar to the upcoming by-election, the continued rise of Reform and the Greens suggests that dissatisfaction with Starmer’s Labour runs far deeper than a routine mid-term dip, with Labour increasingly squeezed by a confident left-wing alternative on one side and a growing populist protest vote on the other. Should Labour perform poorly, the local elections risk becoming early warning signs of nationwide judgment on Starmer’s leadership.
With these other threats in mind, there may come a point when no one is left to take the fall. As the by-election and May local elections accumulate, deflection may no longer be an option. If these don’t turn out as intended, roads would lead back to him with his premiership hanging by a thread.
Words by Hakeem Kabia