Make America Great Again… Again?
On the 15th of November, former US President Donald Trump announced that he would be making a third bid for the presidency from his estate in Mar-A-Lago, Florida. Met with chants of “USA! USA!”, he aimed to cultivate a sense of nostalgia for his presidency, claiming to have created a legacy of international prestige and economic power that has collapsed since his ousting from power in 2020. The vast majority of his claims were spurious, yet he was met with cheers and applause throughout his hour-long speech, suggesting that he remains popular – and a threat to Democratic leadership during the next presidential election.
Despite this, the hoped-for ‘Red Wave’ of Republican success that some predicted would sweep the US midterms on the 8th of November failed to materialise. The Republicans gained eight seats in the House to win a slim majority and lost one in the Senate, giving Democrats a marginally tighter hold there. This result was not the victory that they had hoped for. Fully aware that public discontent brought by the global economic downturn coincides with the dissatisfaction surrounding President Biden’s leadership, many Republicans hoped that these issues would lead to a massive shift in Congress. A significant Congressional defeat could have blocked further Democratic policy, just as Obama suffered in 2010 and 2014, when he progressively lost control of the House and then Senate four years later, severely undercutting his policy making power. This did not come to pass: the Republican party appears to have been overshadowed by Trump’s continuous presence and the spectre of the Capitol riots deterring many more moderate Republican voters. Furthermore, the need to protect abortion rights since the overturning of Roe v Wade seems to have swayed votes towards the Democrats, as Republicans continue to take a hardline stance.
At the same time, a new figure has appeared, Florida governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is hoping to appeal to the voters put off by the scandals and violence of the Trump presidency. He uses Trump’s populist culture war rhetoric and policies to take the same platform without the baggage of Trump’s impeachments and divisive legacy within the Republican party. While he has not yet declared his own presidential candidacy, he has just been reelected as governor with 59.4% of the popular vote in a state – eight percent more than in 2020. Additionally, with the support of influential figures such as Elon Musk and publications like the New York Post, a DeSantis run seems inevitable. Trump has warned him off running, and he is still flagging in polls against the former president among Republicans but he has been immensely successful in presenting himself as a viable alternative for moderate Republicans and swing voters and could yet see a spike in the polls if and when he begins his campaign.
Only one US president has ever successfully run for re-election after losing their incumbent run. In 1892 Grover Cleveland won after losing in 1888, but critically he had still won the popular vote on his losing attempt. In comparison, Trump lost by over seven million votes in 2020 as well as losing the electoral college. This historical precedent does not bode well for Trump’s chances in 2024. But the possibility cannot be ruled out. He is still immensely popular among his core base, and the volatile political climate could set the stage for a dramatic shift.
Whether Trump or De Santis, or someone else entirely, becomes the eventual Republican contender, it seems likely that the results of the 2024 presidential election will depend on Biden’s handling of the deepening recession that is affecting people worldwide. A domestic economic crisis means that the Democrats must deliver an effective economic plan that alleviates the worst effects of the recession from ordinary US citizens if they hope to win in 2024. Quotidien struggles at home will draw voters’ attention away from international issues, such as the war in Ukraine, which could otherwise affect the vote and wider-reaching policies will fail to win the necessary support. If it is not effectively tackled, it is plausible that many will begin to buy into Trump’s efforts to evoke nostalgia for his presidency. While the Democrats have done better than expected in the midterms, gaining firmer control of the Senate, their slip in the House will hinder attempts to pass effective legislation. The Republican opposition knows that Democrat policy failure will only strengthen their own hand two years down the line. Trump may not succeed in his renewed bid for the presidency with new challengers and the odds set against him, but the future of US politics still hangs in the balance.
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