War in Ukraine: Why peace seems so distant

Last night another deadly Russian drone and missile attack took place in Lviv and Zaporizhzhia, killing five people and leaving tens of thousands without power. More than three years into the full-scale invasion, calls for the carnage to end have only grown louder, especially since Donald Trump’s return to the White House earlier this year. Yet peace remains frustratingly distant. Why? Because of three major roadblocks: Russia’s pattern of aggression over the years, the Trump administration’s failure to adequately hold Vladimir Putin accountable, and deep disagreements over sovereignty in eastern Ukraine. 

Trump’s Ukraine Strategy

As one of his election promises, President Trump was emphatic that he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours”. He also made threats of “taxes, tariffs, and sanctions” on Russia if the war did not stop. Since then, Trump has repeatedly failed to live up to his words. In May, when Putin rejected a 30-day ceasefire, and the Istanbul peace talks led to nothing, a promised American package of sanctions failed to materialise. His August 8th deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire was not followed up on, and instead invited him to Alaska. The “severe consequences” he warned of if a deal was not reached in Alaska came to pass. 

This has emboldened Putin to press on with his war in Ukraine, along with further escalatory actions like the breaching of NATO airspace in Poland, Romania, and Estonia over the last few weeks. Emboldened, Putin can more confidently continue his deadly attacks on Ukraine without much fear of the reaction from the US: arguably the most powerful and influential country in the world. Credible and reliable US support for Ukraine could be a major factor in establishing peace in Ukraine under terms that Ukraine can agree to, as this would leave less room for Putin to further test the waters militarily in Ukraine and nearby NATO states. 

Russia’s Pattern of Aggression

This lack of meaningful US pressure now brings me to Russia’s broader pattern of unchecked aggression: a pattern stretching back nearly a decade. Russia has invaded Ukraine twice in the last eight years with the 2014 invasion of Crimea (which saw an underwhelming response from the Obama administration) and the current full-scale invasion in 2022. 

With that in mind, a key question begins to reveal itself: how can Ukraine be sure that Russia won’t invade again? President Zelenskyy has already suggested a peace plan including full NATO membership for Ukraine as a security guarantee, which Putin has repeatedly insisted that he would not accept. Putin has also recently dismissed the idea of Western peacekeeping troops in what PM Keir Starmer called the “coalition of the willing” to enforce a ceasefire as part of a deal to eventually end the conflict. Here we can see that Putin seems only to prefer a peace deal in which Ukraine is virtually defenceless which would not provide Ukraine with enough certainty that Russia won’t invade again. 

Disagreements Over Sovereignty in the East

Eastern Ukraine has seen the most intense fighting, with Russia currently occupying much of the 5 eastern regions, while Ukraine remains determined to gain it back as reflected in current public sentiment. 75% of Ukrainians object to ceding land in exchange for peace according to the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology. This reluctance is echoed by President Zelenskyy who said that this would “open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive.” Given Russia’s use of Crimea as a springboard for its 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s caution is understandable. 

This brings us back to Russia’s previously mentioned unwillingness to accept adequate protections for Ukraine. Without these protections, ceding territory in the East would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future aggression, effectively making any peace deal fragile at best. In demanding this outcome, Putin wants to have his cake and eat it. Overcoming this dispute over post-war control of the East is paramount to securing lasting peace

Ultimately, lasting peace in Ukraine can only be achieved when its sovereignty is fully respected and its security is firmly guaranteed. Without this, the cycle of violence will persist and the path to peace will remain frustratingly out of reach. 

Words by Hakeem Kabia