Hear me out, there is a quiet genius behind Trump’s foreign policy
Image credit: abc news
This article was inspired by the Rest is Politics podcast and primarily the following two quotes from Rory Stewart on the situation in Venezuela: ‘Final one is the way in which the traditional allies of Venezuela, so particularly Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua haven’t come to Venezuela’s defence’ and ‘Trump has got Russia thinking they’re about to get a deal from him in Ukraine, so they’re not going to go out on a limb for Venuzeula. The Chinese are in the middle of these huge tariff negotiations. They’re not going to go out on a limb for Venezuela. Iran, of course, nobody came to their assistance when they were struck by Israel and then by the US.’
Rory Stewart and Alister Campbell seem to ignore the significance of what they are saying because of how it has been achieved. I believe they do not seem to realise that they have highlighted a massive set of wins for the Trump ‘doctrine’. The fact that these wins have occurred, I think, teaches liberals a lesson about means, even if we find the ends reprehensible.
Now siding with Trump over the Blairite Rest is Politics might seem an odd thing to do for someone who defines themselves as a proud Blairite, but I would beg you to hear me out here.
What is Trump’s foreign policy?
Much of the focus on Trump’s foreign policy has been on how he is pivoting the US away from the neo-conservative/liberal interventionist global police force that has long been the position of both Democrats and Republicans. But has he?
Trump isn’t an isolationist when you look at actions over words. Since the start of his second term, he has bombed Iran and ‘drug boats’ in the Caribbean, threatened to overthrow one Latin American dictator and has ‘brokered peace’ between India and Pakistan, Armenia (or maybe Albania) and Azerbaijan and the DRC and Rwanda.
The Trump presidency is still very much active on the world’s stage; all it has done is claim that this has been in America’s interests by pursuing an ‘America First approach.’ But that is what all presidents do. Bush may have talked about the international legal reasons for the Iraq War and the ethics of toppling Saddam, but he fought it because he believed it was in the US’s interests. Biden did not withdraw from Afghanistan because it was the right thing to do. Ethics may play a role, but this ethics (fighting for liberalism) is always presented as being in the US or, more widely, the West’s interests.
Trump is also no different in his willingness to use US power. Bush, Reagan and Kennedy (and probably Rubio) believed in using US power to advance US ideals such as freedom, democracy and capitalism (you can debate whether they really did this or not, but they claimed this). This exercise of power held very little concern for what the world thought and whether the US was following international law. Trump is basically the same; the only difference is that he is using US power for the pursuit of US interests (or at least what he perceives as US interests) over ideals.
The new US foreign policy is not anything radically new. The Trump Doctrine is power diplomacy; it is the use of might to get what the US wants. All Trump is doing is using all the US’s power: diplomatic, economic/tariffs and military to a much greater and more self-interested extent.
What’s the impact of this power diplomacy and what can liberals learn?
The gut reaction to Trump’s policy is to say it has not worked. It’s pretty understandable. He has targeted US allies and enemies alike. Some of the policies seem to defy logic. And the actions clash with ideas of international law and fair play.
But, in a way, they have worked.
I don’t like the outcomes from this success, but that doesn’t mean that: 1) it hasn’t worked and 2) there is nothing to learn from the success.
Tariffs:
This is not a defence of the economic benefits of tariffs (because they don’t help the economy) nor is it a defence of how the tariff policy has been implemented (why target your allies). Instead, it highlights how much power the West has and how liberals could learn from this.
The tariff policy has resulted in some degree of success. The main tariff battle has been between the US and China, which saw tariffs against each other rise to over 100% and trade between the world’s two biggest economies almost halted. But people view this only from the perspective of the damage it would have done to the US; however, damage would have been done to China as well. Both sides need each other and both benefit from globalisation.
Both sides have been forced to accept that they can’t employ a policy of brinkmanship with the other; both the US and China have realised that they need to compromise in order to bring down tariffs.
Meanwhile, other tariffs have had more present impacts. Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have all signed new trade deals with the US following the implementation of tariffs; these new deals have followed similar principles: easier access for US businesses into their respective markets and new investment into the US.
In all cases, the tariffs have forced a break with the status quo and there has not been an international disaster. Despite the erratic nature of the policy, other countries have stuck by the US, signed new trade deals and, to an extent, done what the US has wanted. Why?
Simple, the US produces around 15% of the global economy. They can’t be ignored.
Liberals should learn from this. NATO+ (a term I use to describe NATO plus Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan) have an even greater economic power than just the US. Together, they make up just under 40% of global GDP.
NATO+ is one of the most powerful international alliances in history, if not the most. If US tariffs can get countries to change their course and renegotiate deals with just 15% of the global economy, imagine what the force of 40% of the global economy could achieve.
NATO+ can use its weight for more intelligent reasons than the US. While Trump has used the tariffs to improve manufacturing at home, or raise money (no one really knows which one), NATO+ could use it to support the shared liberal democratic ideals that all members uphold.
Trump has shown us some of the power of tariffs. NATO+ could show us their true power.
Wars:
US military power has never really been in doubt, but we always assumed that the exercise of US power would incur some reaction from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, or maybe even Cuba (all elements of the Axis of Evil). But Trump has used US power and found an open door.
In Iran, a country very well connected to the Moscow-Beijing axis as a source for drones and oil, was bombed by the US and Israel for 12 days. Air defence systems were deconstructed, top officials were killed, nuclear sites were hit and bombs fell on Tehran. The response? Some social media posts by the Iranian government claimed it would strike back with force.
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the US has begun airstrikes against random boats and declared (in some form) a no-fly zone over the country. The response? I’ll turn back to Rory Stewart, the traditional allies of Venezuela, so particularly Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, “haven’t come to Venezuela’s defence.”
In reality, the US has used its power and no one has stopped them.
What should liberals learn from this?
Use NATO (+)’s power.
Under Trump, the US’s power has been used for dubious reasons, especially around Venezuela, where there is talk about regime change (something good), but the bombs fall on, what might be, fishing boats.
NATO (+) could use its power differently. Whilst some will point to the complete lack of international law to support the US airstrikes against Iran, they fail to accept the reality. The other side doesn’t care whether they play by the rules or whether we play by the rules. NATO should follow part of the Trump Doctrine. Ditch the rules that say Western states can’t stand up for human rights when Russia and China don’t want us to. Instead, remember that NATO is the most powerful military alliance to ever exist and use this power to fight for the world we want to see.
Concluding thoughts
Trump’s foreign policy is not something to be copied uncritically. It is filled with errors. But, Trump’s foreign policy should not be completely rejected either.
Trump should teach liberals a simple lesson. The US is powerful. The West is powerful. Use that power.
Liberals should see the US today and what it is doing around the world and see a country that is able to use its power for the pursuit of its own objectives and liberals should learn. The West united can bomb dictators, tariff autocrats and oppose those who see us as enemies already.
Just because the other side, a side you may very well hate, is doing something does not mean it is 100% wrong. Trump has shown liberals who want to promote liberalism around the world a blueprint for doing it.
Its time to use the liberal world’s power like Trump has used US power and fight for liberalism, fight for freedom.
Words by Archie Sykes